What are the odds?

[TheStelmer]

Hi guys!
I have a little puzzle for everyone.

I don't have a prize, but if the Theory 11 team wants to award the person to guess correctly...be my guest!
I think the person to guess this correctly should be awarded!

Ok, here's the puzzle:

If I thoroughly shuffle a deck of playing cards(hopefully blackJAQKs) and I place them in a huge messy pile in the middle of a table then you choose four cards at random. What are the odds of getting the four aces?
The person to guess the closest answer in percentage by Tuesday noon, or the first person to guess correctly wins!

If theory 11 doesn't add a prize I'll see if I can't send the winner something my self!

Good luck

 

[TylerRouss]

Well. Considering we are all magicians here, 4/4. However mathematically speaking your looking at 1/7590024 with jokers, 1/6497400 without.

Or by percentage, a 0.0000132% chance with jokers to a 0.0000154% chance without.

 

[TheStelmer]

Your verry close

 

[TheStelmer]

But just for funn let's say I throw in one shuffle after each card is picked, what are the odds now?

 

[Dean Magic]

well I know that in poker you have a 1 in 4000 chance of getting a four of a kind. However, I don't know about reaching into a pile of cards. wouldn't the first time you have 4 in 52 chance, 2nd time 3 in 51 chance, 3rd time 2 in 50, and lastly 1 in 49. then you would have a 24 in 6497400 chance of getting it or 1 in 270725. I'm pretty sure that I am way off but its worth a shot.

 

[KonTW]

So for the first ace your chances are 4/52, for the second ace 3/51, for the third ace 2/50 and for the final ace 1/49.
Now if you multiply these probabilities you will get the result: 0.0003694% (Without the Jokers obviously)

 

[TylerRouss]

Oh wow I am a fool lol. I totally forgot about the second altering pool. Shuffling the deck in between selections changes nothing.