Whats the big deal with prediction "magic"?

[Fredrick H.]

I want to start a discussion perhaps in a series but for now let's focus on the topic here. I am more playing devils advocate.

I personally have never been grabbed by prediction magic. I just do not get it. Whether you are getting a bunch of random numbers from an audience and showing those same numbers some "magical way" I am always left feeling the same thing, "Wow, I don't know how that happens but meh so what?". The problem I come to is that for all that magic is and can be, prediction, does not feel magical. When the effect ends it leaves me wanting to feel like anything is possible, the only result I am left with is that this prediction is in some way possible and I do not know it therefore it becomes null. And please do not confuse this with the mentality that all magic tricks are that way; I am stating beyond the simple effect prediction does not bring me to something the same way Vernon's traveler's, Tommy Wonder's Coin routines (anything by Wonder actually), or that Pen and Teller have brought me to time and again. So I think whats the big deal?

Some might say this falls inline with the "too perfect theory" that is another topic for another time but is something I am equally not impressed with. But perhaps a prediction, like that of a lottery ticket number just seems so unlikely to be possible it leaves us realizing what really went on.

For me though, it comes down to that feeling, when you watch Teller perform "shadows" you feel something inside you that suspends belief that gets swept away with the performance of the magic and the art. Predictions regardless of the work the performer puts into it and the cleverness of the effect leaves me unimpressed, unmystified and quite frankly perturbed. Its not magic, its not in my mind at least.

Now obviously the rest of the world does not think like I do. So in the interest of the community, and fellow magicians for those who perform it, those who like it, and those who have a grasp on it. Why? Why choose to do that over another effect?

I do not wish to start any kind of war between opinions, so lets please keep this is the realm of hospitality. I want a good discussion here, not insults

 

[Tower of Lunatic Meat]

Here's the thing, I think prediction effects and the choice to use them depend on the magician, their character, personality, inventory, knowledge, and what they really want to do with all of it. I think a lot of magicians are on the idea that it's all about stunning and baffling spectators; perfect prediction does just that. If you want to baffle spectators like you're The Riddler, by all means. It's just not my cup of tea.

I will say that the ONLY prediction effect that I KNOW that is VASTLY different is Tenyo's 'The Third Eye'. The short of it is 'spectator B' predicts 'spectators A's' chosen card. Both spectators are left wondering what happened--and the magician didn't do a single thing but handle the props.

To be completely honest. In my inventory, I only perform ONE prediction effect and I'll tell it to you: Ghost Deck from Milton Bradley's Magic Works.

Of all the effects that I work with, it's the only one that is the outlier of all of them. Reason being is that all of my effects have to do with the spectator actually doing the magic. They handle the props, they give their own magic words/gestures, they make the magic happen. Ghost Deck is really the only effect where the spectator helps me, as opposed to the focus being all on the spectator and me helping them. And that's part of my problem with prediction effects is that A LOT of them are all magician oriented. Only the magician can do them and only the magician has the power.

Some magicians are definitely more entertaining as far as prediction effect presentation goes. But as far as the 'genre' goes. It's not my cup of tea to really perform or watch either.

But again, it comes down to character and presentation. I think this may be the short answer to your question of 'why do some magicians do prediction effects?'.

 

[Justin.Morris]

I think you answered your own question. Teller has put together a wonderful piece that evokes emotion. A trick (mentalism or levitation) can either be just a puzzle, or something that makes you feel something. Think David Blaine doing Balducci vs Copperfield flying. It's not really the height and method that makes the difference - it's the premise and presentation of the effect. In fact, in Blaine's last special he had people feeling real emotions with card tricks! When you get into someone's head, it's so personal. When you manipulate them in some way (like make them pick the same number that you predicted), it is so personal. Years ago when I first bought this trick (http://www.penguinmagic.com/p/633) I would present it like Oz did. I got some "huh that's weird" reactions. Last year I did a gig for a psychology department and decided to do this but this time under the premise that the brain could pick up on a subtly marked card - so much so, that they could't not pick it (a synopsis of the presentation). Wow, the reactions were SO much better. Now I use this effect often. Because suddenly they all were affected (I have everyone at the table collectively decide on a card)

So presentation matters - a lot. Make the presentation matter. Dan white's recent Tonight show effect for Jimmy was connected because it was a present for him that connected his fans with the present. This makes it matter to Jimmy. The fans would also enjoy it because they like Jimmy. The rest of the internet watching may not connect with it so much. But the effect wasn't for them - it was for Jimmy and his fans.

Predictions not only make someone wonder about the abilities of the magicians/mentalist, but also makes them wonder if they were manipulated in some way. That's personal, and that makes it strong. However, like any trick, if the presentation stinks, then you are right it is an underwhelming and bland puzzle.

- and then there is also an element of personal preference too. For me, I loathe levitation of small objects. I've never seen one that doesn't scream STRING! I've seen some better than others, but it all looks painfully obvious to me and I would never show that for a paying audience. Am I thinking too much like a magician because I know the method? Sure I am. Some audiences love that stuff. I just don't prefer it.

 

[Fredrick H.]

I think that is the big issue for me is presentation. Dan white's presentation was perfect for his audience, I agree but me watching it on my computer didn't grab me. Which makes sense, I wasn't there so it doesn't resonate with me.

I think the consensus I see thus far is it matters on the presentation or the performer and it also matters on the performers preference, I am not a fan of predictions so of course I will not use them just as Justin.Morris wouldn't use (I assume) a basic levitation of something small for the same reason. But even Dan white's presentation, as wonderful as it was, mattered to the audience at hand.

What then do we do with some forms of recorded magic? Prediction seems to me to be very important to the audience present. If you hear about it afterwards or watch a recording of it you are not really 'in' on it like being in on a joke where you just had to be there to get it. In today's day and age magic on video is just about everywhere. So would we say that prediction is something that should be kept to 'being there' or again does it depend on the performer, presentation, etc?

 

[Tower of Lunatic Meat]

What then do we do with some forms of recorded magic? Prediction seems to me to be very important to the audience present. If you hear about it afterwards or watch a recording of it you are not really 'in' on it like being in on a joke where you just had to be there to get it. In today's day and age magic on video is just about everywhere. So would we say that prediction is something that should be kept to 'being there' or again does it depend on the performer, presentation, etc?

Check this one out for a neat play on the prediction effect. AND it was made by Lubor Fiedler. So you KNOW it's going to be innovative! Not saying it may change your mind on it, but its certainly from a different angle:

 

[ChrisWiens]

Simon Aronson has a wonderful and indepth essay in his latest book "Art Decko", "Pondering Predictions".
It's really worth reading and was an eye-opener to me.

 

[Fredrick H.]

Thank you for your posts. I am definitely not opposed to prediction magic. I think perhaps its time to bring into the same caliber consistently with other styles of magic. I would be interested to read Simon Aronson's theoretical thoughts on prediction.

I wonder too, if some gravitate towards predictions because they hope it will play big with little effort. I think of the opening in now you see me. Obviously no one will reveal a card on the side of a building like that (time will tell, I suppose) but the method is simple, learned quickly but can give the magician (or in some cases something less-than) the power over their audience as they wish. The ability to know the future and yet lack in plot, presentation, and art. I think Banachek makes a good point in one of his books that a magician should play more the hero, not in control of some otherworldly power but has some access to it. It changes the way the audience perceives them and the magicians performance

 

[FormlessMars22]

In my opinion, prediction tricks don't elicit the reaction they deserve because of two factors: Impossibility and most importantly, impossibility that makes sense.

Often times spectators can't link the prediction to the effect because of the lack of context or a story that makes the situation valid. Also I find that a lot of magicians play the reveal of the prediction much larger than it is purely because they want it to be yet the build up hasn't allowed for the spectators to feel that way simply because it was never there.

In my opinion prediction tricks are extremely powerful because it digs into a realm that ordinary people want to be in, the future, and what really makes the effect good is how effectively you connect the spectator to the trick, when none of this is done correctly, we get the 'meh' factor.

 

[RedbeardThePink]

In my opinion, prediction tricks don't elicit the reaction they deserve because of two factors: Impossibility and most importantly, impossibility that makes sense.

Often times spectators can't link the prediction to the effect because of the lack of context or a story that makes the situation valid.

BOOM!

This is the problem with much of the magic (and virtually ALL of the mediocre-to-bad) magic that you see today. No story and no context. This is the reason for heckling, underwhelming reactions--all of it. That might seem like a tall claim, but think about it.

It's true that secrecy is useful for great reactions, and for some tricks it's best to leave some information out and/or mislead people's perception so the spectator gets hit with something unexpected, but in the end you're still presenting a piece of theater with a story, and your audience generally needs some kind of explanation as to why something is happening. If your story does not answer that question, it leaves people confused and frustrated, and that's when the attention turns to your methods instead.

Now, what do I mean by that? Take me for instance. I can do magic because I'm a Wizard. Sometimes it takes a magic word, sometimes it takes the wave of a wand, sometimes I exploit little known "glitches" in reality...the actual methodology varies from plot to plot, but in general each effect has some magical "reason" for happening, and my reason for knowing how to do any of that is that I'm a fictional Wizard with arcane knowledge and special resources. By presenting a desirable/interesting fiction, I entice the audience to suspend disbelief and accept the story. Once that's happened, the actual method matters to virtually no one; there's already a perfectly good explanation in play that's interesting and contributes to the story.

What I'm really saying here is this: find something to do or say with your magic that isn't just "I'm a guy in plainclothes who can break reality when his fingers snap for...oh, no discernible reason, really, but hey, WATCH THIS CARD TRICK!" Make up a character, tell a story, do a dance, have a "magical mat" and have your powers only work when you're standing on it...anything. Just give it some context.

 

[Fredrick H.]

BOOM!

This is the problem with much of the magic (and virtually ALL of the mediocre-to-bad) magic that you see today. No story and no context. This is the reason for heckling, underwhelming reactions--all of it. That might seem like a tall claim, but think about it.

It's true that secrecy is useful for great reactions, and for some tricks it's best to leave some information out and/or mislead people's perception so the spectator gets hit with something unexpected, but in the end you're still presenting a piece of theater with a story, and your audience generally needs some kind of explanation as to why something is happening. If your story does not answer that question, it leaves people confused and frustrated, and that's when the attention turns to your methods instead.

Now, what do I mean by that? Take me for instance. I can do magic because I'm a Wizard. Sometimes it takes a magic word, sometimes it takes the wave of a wand, sometimes I exploit little known "glitches" in reality...the actual methodology varies from plot to plot, but in general each effect has some magical "reason" for happening, and my reason for knowing how to do any of that is that I'm a fictional Wizard with arcane knowledge and special resources. By presenting a desirable/interesting fiction, I entice the audience to suspend disbelief and accept the story. Once that's happened, the actual method matters to virtually no one; there's already a perfectly good explanation in play that's interesting and contributes to the story.

What I'm really saying here is this: find something to do or say with your magic that isn't just "I'm a guy in plainclothes who can break reality when his fingers snap for...oh, no discernible reason, really, but hey, WATCH THIS CARD TRICK!" Make up a character, tell a story, do a dance, have a "magical mat" and have your powers only work when you're standing on it...anything. Just give it some context.

I agree, in context magic needs direction and justification. I think a lot of prediction rides on the plot that somehow these things all come together. My question is why, if there is no deeper reason it becomes less impressive. Which unfortunately magic today does not seem to emphasize the importance of a 'character' and then choosing effects that justify the characterization. I have always enjoyed max maven and his prediction presentations and mentalism for that matter. His character and personification justify everything he is able to do.

Even so, I have seen a magician who gave context that was as simple as asking his audience to sit back, relax, and let go of reality for a time. Even that simplistic request sets people up for what is to come.

 

[Josh Burch]

The best prediction type effects that I have seen rely some how on surprise. David Blaune performed a serial number prediction on his last special. The people didn't know what was being predicted until the last moment and it was wonderful. Derren Brown also is great at surprise. Surprise is just another tool to make our magic interesting.