# 2017 theory11 Holiday Contest!

#### C J

So there are around 16-20 options on the holiday wheel about 4-6 are just elite points and 1 is no reward there appears to be a 50% probability of the no reward so mathematically you should get something every other time I have only won elite points so far I believe the probability of getting an actual reward is according to my 3 am tired math is 1 in ironically 52.

Theory 11 team is my math right or am I just exhausted please tell me

Thanks, C J

#### Johnmannn

So there are around 16-20 options on the holiday wheel about 4-6 are just elite points and 1 is no reward there appears to be a 50% probability of the no reward so mathematically you should get something every other time I have only won elite points so far I believe the probability of getting an actual reward is according to my 3 am tired math is 1 in ironically 52.

Theory 11 team is my math right or am I just exhausted please tell me

Thanks, C J
Probably wrong... Obviously grand prizes will have a lower probability to be won so we can't tell for sure how likely it is to win elite points or even nothing. For my case, I spun the wheel like 20 times and got no reward twice. Also, there's a spin again option.
I guess it's pointless to speculate probabilities without data from a large number of spins...

#### Hakaari

I guess it's pointless to speculate probabilities without data from a large number of spins...

well, that`s the data people are giving in this thread though.
personally, this far I`ve gotten 1x 100elite points, 1x 25elite points, 3x no reward, 1x Free spin followed by the 4.th no reward.

so it kinda doesn`t seem as random as the wheel makes it out to look

#### EmmaW1

Elite Member
I’ve only had one “no reward”. The rest has been all elite points (4x25, 1x50, 1x100). My partner has had elite points with every spin. Guess it just comes down to luck.. I’ll probably get loads of no rewards now, won’t I?!

#### Johnmannn

well, that`s the data people are giving in this thread though.
personally, this far I`ve gotten 1x 100elite points, 1x 25elite points, 3x no reward, 1x Free spin followed by the 4.th no reward.

so it kinda doesn`t seem as random as the wheel makes it out to look
Or you just got unlucky, happens too :/
We would need like a 1000 spins data to determine what's the probability for each of the options

#### Hakaari

oh don`t get me wrong, I don`t mind...don`t really expect to win anything to be honest...it`s a nice little trick made by T11 to draw in some people...if they were to hand out premium gifts to everyone at every spin that would be bad for buisness after all

#### Lyle Borders

##### vp of operations // theory11
Staff member
My spin for today said I won an ornament and that I would get an email on how to contact support. I never received the email though. Should I contact support anyways @Lyle Borders ?

Working on that now - A bunch of prize claim emails aren't getting sent out for some reason. We will fix ASAP.

// L

#### Lyle Borders

##### vp of operations // theory11
Staff member
So there are around 16-20 options on the holiday wheel about 4-6 are just elite points and 1 is no reward there appears to be a 50% probability of the no reward so mathematically you should get something every other time I have only won elite points so far I believe the probability of getting an actual reward is according to my 3 am tired math is 1 in ironically 52.

Theory 11 team is my math right or am I just exhausted please tell me

Thanks, C J

Chances of landing on a Grand Prize space are NOT the same as landing on a Point space, or a "No Reward" space. You aren't imagining that at all.

This isn't a physical wheel, where the odds of landing on each space are equal and dictated by physics and gravity. This is a digital wheel, on the internet where gravity doesn't apply! When you click on "Spin", your prize is automatically determined based on a mathematically random algorithm. Your prize is random, but weighted towards the more common prizes. If we didn't do this, ALL of our grand prizes would be gone on day #1, and there would be nothing left to shoot for. The grand prizes are hard to get, but that is what makes it fun.

Once your prize is selected by our system, the wheel spins a few times, slows down, and stops on your selected prize. Unlike a physical wheel, your prize is not determined by where the wheel stops. It is the opposite here - where the wheel stops is determined by your prize. We have every intention of giving out all of the grand prizes if at all possible by the end of the contest, and we set our odds so that this is likely to happen.

// L

#### Johnmannn

I assume you're not allowed to give out probabilistic numbers, right?

#### Juvator

Sigh....another 25 ep....it’s either that or no reward...

Beginning to think it’s not so random at all but clearly programmed towards some kinda timing...

Saying that - EPS are better than nothing!

I wish I could say "sigh another 25 ep" Haha

RickU

#### Elok

Three 'no rewards' in a row. That's three strikes, meaning the "no rewards" are out... right?

I just like seeing the wheel spin. The mystery of what comes next is prize enough for me.

RickU

#### RickU

Elite Member
Chances of landing on a Grand Prize space are NOT the same as landing on a Point space, or a "No Reward" space. You aren't imagining that at all.

This isn't a physical wheel, where the odds of landing on each space are equal and dictated by physics and gravity. This is a digital wheel, on the internet where gravity doesn't apply! When you click on "Spin", your prize is automatically determined based on a mathematically random algorithm. Your prize is random, but weighted towards the more common prizes. If we didn't do this, ALL of our grand prizes would be gone on day #1, and there would be nothing left to shoot for. The grand prizes are hard to get, but that is what makes it fun.

Once your prize is selected by our system, the wheel spins a few times, slows down, and stops on your selected prize. Unlike a physical wheel, your prize is not determined by where the wheel stops. It is the opposite here - where the wheel stops is determined by your prize. We have every intention of giving out all of the grand prizes if at all possible by the end of the contest, and we set our odds so that this is likely to happen.

// L

Cheers

#### Furrukh

Elite Member
After 2 consecutive no rewards
100 points

#### DantetheMante

i have just points and an uncut sheet

#### MIKEENIGMA

NPH signed deck! Just waiting on the email to claim it

#### Elok

50 elite points! The drought has ended!

RickU

#### phultz

Bunch of elite points so far. And for me, those are great! Looking forward to the membership card Thanks for doing this T11! You all know how to take care of your members

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