Predicting the Melbourne Cup

[Ben_Ionesco]

So I will try and keep this short since I wrote a full on essay but lost it due to a power outage. Basically I decided to predict the biggest race in australian history (can be seen here in this thread: http://forums.theory11.com/showthread.php?29655-The-150th-Melbourne-Cup&p=331005#post331005) for two reasons.

(1) Because I feel that most predictions have become predictable (for lack of a better and more appropriate word lol). I believe this as when I was performing the other day for a girl. I asked her to reveal the number she thought of, to which she replied "Why, if you made a prediction just show me and ill tell you if its right or not". I sat for a moment, blank sheet of paper and swami in hand, startled to say the lease. I had never encountered this before so later it got me thinking. I watched some old and some new predictions that I saw and they all had this same fatal flaw. "Why wait for the answer if youve already predicted it" is a strong and valid question. so to this question I have this answer. Because people cannot really predict the future or vanish things or levitate or anything like that and this key thing is why people love it so much. If a man could really levitate, then him levitatating is not that impressive at all, its kinda show-offy and lame. But because deep down people know that its only an illusion and not real, and yet they just saw it with their own eyes, it creates this "OMG how did you do that moment" moment of child-like amazement and wonder. That is the true magic. For example, you always hear Criss Angel say that he cannot predict the future nor does he have any psychic powers, he doesnt and nobody else does. But then you see him two seconds later prediting a car race or stuff like that and people just lose their minds. Case and point.

(2) Almost every prediction in structure seems the same. It always seems to be (1) prediction (2) answer revealed and then (3) prediction revealed to be the same. That slight gap in time where the answer is revealed and the prediction is revealed provides doubt and fodder for speculation about it. Which is understandable why magicians need that gap, because they need to fulfill the prediction but still the fact remains. I think that magicians, some not all, are just playing it safe too much nowadays. They dont take risks anymore, they perform forces and perform only in certain situations but this to me is not real. And its like the old saying goes "No risk, no reward". This brings me back to the end of the first reason. But I do however believe that people do have an inner voice, call it conscience or whater you will but its there and I believe that you can train it to be right on the balance of probabilities of times. An example is a routine I perform where a spectator is asked to place a coin in there hand and then I am able to tell which hand it is in every time, even once while being out of the room.

So that is why I decided to do this prediction this certain way. Against the norm of traditional predictions which will hopefully encourage others to do the same and not fall into this constant state of confortability with effects and certain situations but to always to continue to push the envelope and constantly evolve and change for the better of the art because its like prince once said "life is death without change". But in all honesty I truly believe that I am in a win-win situation here with my prediction. If im right that, awesome how great is that and hopefully it encourages more magicians to take risks in the future but if im wrong then thats a win situation too and ill explain why. It shows that magicians, much to peoples dismay, are only human. If there is one thing ive learnt its that people seem to build up this vass opinion or magicians as these great and powerful people but the truth is that they are human just like me or you. And most are quite humble everyday people. And humans make mistakes so its ok.

So thats the backstory and sorry this was a bit long but I felt like I needed to say it and get it off my chest. Thanks to those who actually took the time to read it and id love to hear some feedback on this.

Wish me luck for the race tomorrow



Cheers

 

[JDENredden]

I have been thinking like this too. It has been a dream of mine as of late, to create a truly unbelievable prediction. That is totally radical to what everyone else has done.
My effect TIME was the first step in this. But no where near the end.

J.

 

[praetoritevong]

Ben, firstly commiserations on the prediction, although it should be noted that you were brave (and correct) in putting so you think, by far the favourite, as third. It was truly a wonderful race by Americain.

Ignoring jden's 'me too-isms' and self-referential posts, I think you've done a good thing here in encouraging risk taking. Once we become predictable, so too does our magic. There is much to be said and gained from taking risks, a topic which has been extensively written about in mentalism circles but almost completely ignored by the magical one to their detriment.

Take risks, and take them with purpose. They have much to offer. Thanks for posting about this important point.

 

[KeoSilver]

Interesting!

Not being a mentalist in anyway, but could there be a way to construct a script that rationalizes why you can not reveal the prediction before the event has transpired?

Anyway, very interesting read and has given probably any who has read the original post, plenty food for thought.

Good luck!

Silver

 

[praetoritevong]

I'm sure there is. But the easier way methodologically it seems would be to give the prediction to a third party for safekeeping...

 

[KeoSilver]

Would this third person perhaps also be slipped fifty dollars US with instructions onto what to do with said prediction?

 

[TheatreHead]

Kostya Kimlat has some wonderful thoughts on the topic.

In a one ahead type trick, instead of "I'm going to write down something here... Ok, name a colour. Blue? Alright, let's fold this up and get back to it later", it becomes
"Ok, I'm going to write something down, I'm not sure how well this is going to go, but... alright, can you try this with me? Do you have much experience with mind reading? No? Ok, this is how it is, I want you just to look into my eyes, look here... Name a colour. Blue? Really? *look at what you've written*. You're going to think this is crazy in a minute". *then fold up the piece of paper*

He totally flips the whole guise. Instead of "I'm reading your mind", which doesn't make sense, why wouldn't you just reveal it instantly if you could?, it becomes "Try and read my mind, and we'll see how it goes". I'd never seen it played like that before.

 

[praetoritevong]

Would this third person perhaps also be slipped fifty dollars US with instructions onto what to do with said prediction?

Haha. That's one way to do it. Ted Lesley has a wonderfully clever way of doing it in his book Paramiracles, which is more what I had in mind, but I suppose that could work

In a different context, Postmentalism could also work.

Kostya Kimlat has some wonderful thoughts on the topic.

In a one ahead type trick, instead of "I'm going to write down something here... Ok, name a colour. Blue? Alright, let's fold this up and get back to it later", it becomes
"Ok, I'm going to write something down, I'm not sure how well this is going to go, but... alright, can you try this with me? Do you have much experience with mind reading? No? Ok, this is how it is, I want you just to look into my eyes, look here... Name a colour. Blue? Really? *look at what you've written*. You're going to think this is crazy in a minute". *then fold up the piece of paper*

He totally flips the whole guise. Instead of "I'm reading your mind", which doesn't make sense, why wouldn't you just reveal it instantly if you could?, it becomes "Try and read my mind, and we'll see how it goes". I'd never seen it played like that before.

Richard Osterlind also has an excellent effect along these lines which I use from time to time. I read about it in Mystique, but I'm sure it was published elsewhere first.